See below for a value game breakdown for tonight’s list of games on Fan Duel by Fancy.
Bam Adebayo (MIA) $ 7,700
Adebayo is questionable for this game, but that price is a bit low for him if he plays. Spurs can play a decent defense, and that score doesn’t have an appealing total, but our projections expect Adebayo to score at least 42.6 FanDuel (FD) points – that’s good for a value of 5.5x at such a low price. He went for 45.5 (5.9x value) on his last outing.
Ja Morant (MEM) $ 6,800
Why is Morant so cheap? Yes, I am aware that the Clippers are a strong defense team. That still doesn’t explain why Morant, who averages 34.6 FanDuel Points Per Game (FDPPG) – or 5.1x worth of that price – is so cheap. With Jonas Valanciunas sidelined with a concussion, Morant had to step in for Memphis. He scored 71.6 FD points in the first game that Valanciunas missed, but that game went into overtime and inflated Morant’s final stat line. However, it still averaged 1.59 FanDuel points per minute (FDPPM), so it would have had 57.3 FD points (8.5x value) on a normal workload of 36 minutes.
D’Angelo Russell (MIN) $ 6,300
Wow. Yesterday’s game between the T’Wolves and the Kings got really out of hand, as two of the NBA’s fastest teams (and worst defenses) clashed. The two teams combined for a whopping 254 points! Russell scored 28 in just 25 minutes of play. He finished with 38.6 FD points (6.1x value), good for 1.54 FDPPM. If these teams play the way they did last night, expect Russell to easily reach value, especially as Sacramento cedes the third FDPPG to the guards who shoot.
Harrison Barnes (SAC) $ 6,000
Like Russell, Barnes also blew up last night. He lost 36.1 FD points in 38 minutes (6x value) so he wasn’t as efficient as Russell, but the price is what earns Barnes a place on this list. You can trust him to get some bulk cargo for the Kings, and as long as Richaun Holmes is out he should lead the Kings in the rebounds.
Buddy Hield (SAC) $ 5,800
Unlike Russell and Barnes, Hield was actually pretty run-of-the-mill last night. He only scored 22.8 FD points (value 3.9x), but the Kings didn’t give him a ton of points – he only played 28 minutes. Hield just couldn’t get any deep warm – he went three for 11 from three points. I suspect he’s going to turn things around tonight, especially as the T’Wolves give up the most FDPPGs to smaller forwards.
Ivica Zubac (LAC) $ 5,100
Well, Ibaka and Leonard are out, so Zubac will continue to do a lot of work inside and outside the glass. He posted a solid 25.2 FD points (4.9x value) against the Trail Blazers last night, and he will face the Grizzlies without Valanciunas tonight. Memphis allowed Jokic to score 47 points, 15 rebounds and eight assists in his first game without Val, so Zubac is in an incredibly strong position on that slate.
Kevon Looney (GSW) $ 4,100
Here is another price that I just don’t understand. James Wiseman finished for the year, and Looney has played 28 minutes per game since he fell. While he wasn’t a stat sheet hangman, he hit 5x against that prize in three of those five games, some of which came against formidable center opponents (Jokic, Embiid and Allen) . But Looney won’t have a strong opponent to face tonight – he will play against the Wizards and Washington will give up the second-largest FDPPG in centers.
Reggie Bullock (NYK) $ 3,800
The first rule of fantasy sports is not to chase points, but Bullock has hit 5x against that prize in each of his last five games. The Knicks are in a rush for small-lead depth with Alec Burks, and Bullock has capitalized. While we can attribute three of his big games to poor perimeter defenses (he’s played the two worst perimeter defenses in three of his last five games), look for New York to continue playing the hot hand tonight.
PJ Dozier (DEN) $ 3,800
Dozier has reached a value of 5x in two of his last three games. It has seen an expanded role since Jamal Murray tore up his ACL, but its price doesn’t reflect its new use. Look for Dozier to tap a Portland defense that’s on the wrong side of a back-to-back.
Oshae Brissett (IND) $ 3,800
I might have saved the best deal for last, my friends. With Turner and Sabonis sidelined, the Pacers may have to feature Brissett, especially if Goga Bitadze’s sprained ankle forces him to run out of time. Brissett may be listed as a small striker, but the Pacers have presented him up front and center, so you should feel confident in putting him in your FanDuel rosters tonight.