We have a series on our hands.
The Memphis Grizzlies sparked lingering alarms about the durability of their playoff basketball brand with a Game 1 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, but bounced back with a resounding 28-point Game 2 victory for tie the series.
Memphis must now keep the momentum on the road, facing a slightly favored spread and what is sure to be renewed attention from their hosts.
Find out who will take the lead in this critical Game 3 with our Grizzlies vs Timberwolves NBA betting picks and predictions for Thursday, April 21.
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each regulated sports betting market.
Memphis opened as a slim favorite from -2.5 to -1.5, and sits at -1.5 across the board at the time of writing. The total opened at 238.5 and was bet at 236.5 at virtually all outlets.
Use the live odds widget above to track all future line moves up to the warning and be sure to check all NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Predictions Grizzlies vs Timberwolves
Predictions made on 04/20/2022 at 4:45 PM ET.
Click on each prediction to go to the full analysis.
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Grizzlies vs Timberwolves game information
• Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Thursday, April 21, 2022
• Trick: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: DTT
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Series Odds
timber wolves: +215
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves betting preview
Grizzlies: No injuries to report.
timber wolves: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend you need to know
The over bets are 10-1 in the Grizzlies’ last 11 playoff games. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves.
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and total in this match. Our best bet is our preferred choice in all markets.
As Memphis has done regularly this season, he responded to a crap performance and chased Minnesota off the field in Game 2, winning 124-96 to decisively stifle any momentum Wolves thought they had snagged.
It’s now back to the drawing board for Minny – who thought he took the lead against Steven Adams in Game 1 — only to see Taylor Jenkins stick him to the Memphis bench in favor of small-ball formations with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman at center. The results spoke for themselves, not only in the final score, but Karl-Anthony Towns spent most of the night in fouls and scored just 15 points.
Memphis’ current swap was much more effective at defending Minny’s five-out offense, keeping it just 39.5 percent shooting — including 28.9% on a 3-point board which accounted for half of Wolves’ shots. Minnesota had the third-highest 3-point rate in the NBA this season and is truly a team that can live and die by all three.
And while Towns can easily turn into a low-block scorer — especially against a range of small balls — Memphis’ “small ball” set features the dude who led the entire league in blocks this year, and had the sixth-lowest opponent FG percentage within five feet among qualified players.
Conversely, Wolves seemed unable to prevent Memphis from getting exactly what they wanted. Ja Morant sliced around the perimeter and more often than not found a knife wide open as the wolves frantically swooped down on him. The Grizzlies weren’t even that unsustainable, shooting 47.8% from the field (slightly above their season average of 46.2%) and a paltry 32.4% from long range. Their effort is highly reproducible.
Memphis has arguably the deepest bench in the entire league, and it took just one game to find the right combination to cripple Minnesota’s primary upside in this series. The Wolves played horribly in Game 2 and will almost certainly make this game closer, but they are the ones on the hot seat, and the Grizzlies are unlikely to let up on the pressure.
Nine of the Grizzlies’ last 10 wins have had eight or more points, and during that span their average winning margin is 21.6. Yes, it’s the playoffs, and the game will slow down, and adjustments will be made, yadda yadda.
Simply put: Even if you factor in playoff pace, Memphis should win this game by more than a bucket if it does. And we think it will.
Prediction: Memphis -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Covers NBA betting analysis
As noted above, we are aware of the normal form playoff basketball takes: more meticulous, disciplined play from shorter rotations, increasing both their intensity and their ability to grip and adapt. to the opponent. The result, more often than not, is a slower pace and a lower score.
This is not necessarily the case here.
The Wolves and Grizzlies were the league’s fastest and fourth fastest teams in the regular season, and play basketball styles that perfectly accommodate each other’s fast and loose tendencies: teams with young, athletic legs and lots of buckets, who like to force turnovers and go out in the open court.
Game 1 was clocked at 106 and Game 2 was clocked at 102.5, both leading Minnesota’s league in the regular season (101.47). Safe to say, this has easily been the fastest streak yet in these playoffs.
So the plan is definitely there for back and forth between two Top 10 offenses, and Minnesota can’t put in any more turd than they did in Game 2. Memphis’ offense is buzzing, and Wolves — while being horrible on both sides of the ball in Game 2 — have more clear advantages to achieve on the attacking side.
Game 1 ended easily (as the Grizzlies have in every playoff game with this core except Game 2) and we have faith in an offense as powerful as Minnesota’s to put in a much better effort in the game 3.
With that total steadily dropping since opening, we’re getting a bit more value, and we feel like the tempo of this series lends itself more to Wolves’ offensive improvements than a defensive crackdown.
Prediction: Over 236.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
As mentioned above, Memphis blew up teams pretty late and definitely turned Minnesota around heading into Game 3.
Considering how deep the Grizzlies pissed off their enemies in Game 2, that 1.5-point gap seems very slim, especially considering the Grizzlies were third-best in the NBA against the road team at 25-15 this year. Minnesota performed well at home (22-18-2 ATS), but needs to make some serious adjustments and improvements against a hungry team that smells like blood in the water.
Grizzlies can hurt you in so many ways and have a sure killer instinct that belies their youth. We wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them pounce on Wolves.
We think it’s useful to add a bucket on the alt-spread — and the line should be closer to -4.5 — but don’t want to get too greedy against a dangerous Minnesota team that, while stunning, is not to be underestimated.
To take: Memphis -3.5 (+115 at DraftKings)
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