NFL Week 6 picks, odds and best bets


Another 1-1 week for our best bets, with one win and one should have been won. The Baltimore Ravens came from behind to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals, 19-17, on Sunday night, taking possession of the AFC North lead. Those of us who held tickets with the Bengals +3 or +3½ didn’t care because the Bengals always covered. Neither Lamar Jackson nor Joe Burrow was a determining factor, combining for 372 net passing yards. Instead, the kickers kept the game close with five field goals, including a successful 58-yard attempt by Justin Tucker, who took the longest field goal prop I recommended before the game.

In less happy news, the Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots contest – in which I advocated betting over 45½ runs – wasn’t as successful, thanks to Jared Goff and the Lions’ previously explosive offense scoring exactly zero. point. Goff completed 19 of 35 passes for 229 yards and an interception, leading to a 6.6 Quarterback Total Rating (out of 100). It was a dismal effort at an unfortunate time. Still, it was a good bet. The Lions passed New England’s 35-yard line on four consecutive second-half hits, missing four fourth plays. The market moved in our favor before kickoff and the Patriots scored 29 points, putting the total within reach. Unfortunately, Goff decided to award us a moral victory, rather than a bankable victory.

Carolina Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 215 yards in a losing effort against the San Francisco 49ers despite missing late in the game with an ankle injury. It was more than enough to take the prop from over 190.5 passing yards. We don’t count these player accessories in our overall tally, but it’s nice to have some money added to the bankroll.

My lean in the Buffalo Bills-Pittsburgh Steelers game turned out to be inappropriate. Pittsburgh, which I advocated at +14, got “broken, 38-3, although rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett moves the offense more easily than his predecessor, Mitch Trubisky. Pickett was 34 for 52 for 327 yards, no touchdowns and one interception, but saw his team falter four times in the red zone. In fact, the Steelers had 12 more minutes of possession than the Bills, which gave them ample opportunity to put points on the board. If nothing else, it was an encouraging sign for the Steelers’ offense — and something to watch going forward.

Choices were made against the consensus point deviations from Tuesday evening; odds that have since changed have been updated in bold, but picks are locked to previous odds.


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